Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories – often accompanied by scores of failures.
Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Innovation Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. The five key phases of a technology’s life cycle (direct quotes from Gartner) “ Should you wait for further maturation? If there are too many unanswered questions around the commercial viability of an emerging technology, it may be better to wait until others have been able to deliver tangible value.” The Gartner Hype Cycle “ Is a moderate approach appropriate? Executives who are more moderate understand the argument for an early investment but will also insist on a sound cost/benefit analysis when new ways of doing things are not yet fully proven.
“ Should you make an early move? If you’re willing to combine risk taking with an understanding that risky investments don’t always pay off, you could reap the rewards of early adoption. “Clients use Hype Cycles to get educated about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their industry and individual appetite for risk.”Īccording to Gartner, the Hype Cycles methodology can respond to questions such as: Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time, providing a sound source of insight to manage its deployment within the context of your specific business goals. “When new technologies make bold promises, how do you discern the hype from what’s commercially viable? And when will such claims pay off, if at all? Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities. Gartner, Inc. (reference below, link on right) has developed the concept of the hype cycle to describe how a new technology or application evolves over time. Click for Gartner website Concept description
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